变化胁鳟鱼受到河的威流流量等

发布时间：2025-05-05 21:28:38 来源：牛骥同槽网 作者：热点

摘要：科研人员预测说，鳟鱼

PNAS：鳟鱼受到河流流量等变化的威胁

生物探索推荐英文论文摘要：

Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change

Abstract

Broad-scale studies of climate change effects on freshwater species have focused mainly on temperature, ignoring critical drivers such as flow regime and biotic interactions. We use downscaled outputs from general circulation models coupled with a hydrologic model to forecast the effects of altered flows and increased temperatures on four interacting species of trout across the interior western United States (1.01 million km2), based on empirical statistical models built from fish surveys at 9,890 sites. Projections under the 2080s A1B emissions scenario forecast a mean 47% decline in total suitable habitat for all trout, a group of fishes of major socioeconomic and ecological significance. We project that native cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii, already excluded from much of its potential range by nonnative species, will lose a further 58% of habitat due to an increase in temperatures beyond the species’ physiological optima and continued negative biotic interactions. Habitat for nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta is predicted to decline by 77% and 48%, respectively, driven by increases in temperature and winter flood frequency caused by warmer, rainier winters. Habitat for rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, is projected to decline the least (35%) because negative temperature effects are partly offset by flow regime shifts that benefit the species. These results illustrate how drivers other than temperature influence species response to climate change. Despite some uncertainty, large declines in trout habitat are likely, but our findings point to opportunities for strategic targeting of mitigation efforts to appropriate stressors and locations.

这组作者预测说，威胁尽管存在这些差异，鳟鱼美国西部所有鳟鱼物种的河流化栖息地将很可能衰退至多50%。到2080年，流量而那时候是等变它们最脆弱的。更温暖的威胁气候可能通过改变河与溪的流量从而威胁鲑鱼种群。

PNAS：鳟鱼受到河流流量等变化的威胁

科研人员预测说，从而拓展了这些预测。因为多雨的冬季很可能让脆弱的卵和幼鱼暴露在更冷的水中，

Seth J. Wenger及其同事通过把造成了各种河流流量模式的洪水和干旱的时机考虑进去，气候驱动的流量可能放大或抵消水温适度增加带来的负面影响。这组作者说，更温暖的气候可能通过改变河与溪的流量从而威胁鲑鱼种群。例如，此前的研究预测了更温暖的水对几种喜欢冷水的鲑鱼物种的负面影响。

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